
Deeper austerity for Greece? Photo credit: John Delta
After triggering the promised financial bailout package, Greece faces a new challenge: Germany is demanding that the debt-laden country enact painful new austerity measures.
Things just keep getting worse for Greece. Last Friday, following a week of bad economic news, Prime Minister George Papandreou was forced to ask for the bailout package. Now, the markets are reacting poorly after German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that Greece enact deeper and more painful austerity measure in return for the badly needed package. The euro lost the loft it initially gained after Greece asked for the package and Asian stocks fell.
Greece has asked both the International Monetary Fund and her eurozone sisters for roughly €45 billion in loans to pay off its debts. The IMF money is likely to come through soonest – essentially since Greece’s first major debt comes due in three weeks – but the eurozone money is being held up by Germany. Germany, as the economic power in the eurozone, is set to provide €8 billion, much to the chagrin and outright anger of the German people. Merkel has asked for deeper austerity measures in an effort to appease her own voters – and, some might argue, in an effort to punish Greece for its profligacy.
Patience Wheatcroft, columnist for The Wall Street Journal, pointed out what’s at the heart of the market’s reaction to Merkel’s demands: “Ms. Merkel’s attitude is exacerbating the markets’ sense of panic over the Greek debacle. The prospect of default on its debt is now less than three weeks away yet the country’s euro-zone colleagues seem to be growing in their scepticism about whether Greece deserves the help it is requesting.” Austerity, she said, is easy to preach – but hard to do.
Especially hard these days. The measures the Greek government has already proposed – and that eurozone leaders say are not deep enough – have resulted deep unrest within in Greece, with public sector workers perpetually on strike. Moreover, some critics claim that austerity measures probably aren’t going to be enough to save the nation from defaulting.
Others, however, claim that Merkel is right to demand more of Greece. The Financial Times, in one of its leading editorials today, wrote that Merkel’s demands, though “political positioning”, are nonetheless “reasonable.” “Greece must take responsibility for its own fate. Athens has been too faint-hearted about wielding the axe,” the paper claimed, noting that Greece’s proposed cuts to public sector pensions aren’t nearly deep enough. “Such measures would be painful in the best of times. Greece missed its opportunity for structural reform. These are now the worst of times. There are no longer any easy options.”
Of course, others also say that even a bailout is too late to save Greece, especially as the bailout itself is taking so long to arrive and restructuring Greece’s debt is looking increasingly likely – painful, but likely. Hans Lorenzen, credit strategist at Citigroup, told The Financial Times that immediate assistance to Greece is needed, at lower interest rates than initially proposed, to stop the snowball. But in the long term, the eurozone needs a European Monetary Fund.
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DP, I would say that the Eurozone must go one of two ways. Either take serious steps towards much closer or total political union, or to inevitably shrink or maybe even collapse altogether. I wouldn’t write Europe off just yet…it took one of the bloodiest wars in history up to that point for Americans to overcome their own North/South divide, and that has been a success for almost 150 years. However, since several great European wars over the last four centuries (e.g., 30 years War, Napoleonic wars, WWI and WWII) have not brought us much closer together, it may be that the greater cultural baggage that Europeans carry will prove too much of an obstacle to allow complete union. Either way, the current crisis may well act as the catalyst for pushing Europe together or dragging her apart.
A Leventis wrote
May 3, 2010
14:36 GMT
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Stas, do you think that it would it better for the eurozone to shrink/restructure? Is the underlying problem that certain nations’ finances are in worse shape than others, and there just is not the political will to “support” the weaker states? I question the viability of the monetary union, simply because the European political union seems so tenuous. in America, states like Alabama and New York have almost nothing in common, but have been bound together in a common currency since our civil war. The one thing these states do have in common is total political cohesion, which is lacking between member “states” in the euro, it would seem to me. if you euros can’t get to the root of the political viability of the union, I don’t see how these monetary issues can be resolved in a manner that will last decades and centuries to come. dp
dp wrote
April 30, 2010
16:45 GMT
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Furthermore, the 8 billion euros (one day’s GDP for Germany) are in effect a subsidised loan on which Germany will be pocketing a 300 basis points spread. It will not cost them anything.
That is of course without mentioning the export benefits the German economy is reaping from a lower euro.
Anyway, let’s hope that governments around the world, from the US to the UK, will learn the lesson that Keynesian spending is not the answer.
Otherwise the Great Recession will turn into a new Great Depression, unnecessarily prolonged by a second catastrophic ‘New Deal’…
Dimitri wrote
April 29, 2010
12:13 GMT
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The extraordinary lack of leadership shown by Mrs. Merkel in refusing to commit to the Greek bailout is finally beginning to have the disastrous consequences that many people feared. Spain and Portugal’s credit ratings have been downgraded, and contagion is spreading fast. I predict that we will soon hear announcements of a much larger rescue package for the Greeks. The German people will be forced to dig much deeper into their pockets than the 8 billion that they are now making such a fuss about. Even so, it may come too late. In the worst case but increasingly possible scenario that eurozone does shrink or collapse, history will remember the petty politicking and indecision of the EU’s leaders as a leading cause.
Stas wrote
April 29, 2010
8:00 GMT
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