A hung parliament on the way? Photo credit: Tony Moory

As Britain hurtles through today’s historic vote, pundits and observers today claim that the most likely outcome of this tumultuous election campaign will be a hung parliament.

It’s the final day of one of the most exciting elections Britain has seen in years – and it’s a sure bet that no one on the campaign trail, certainly not the would be prime ministers, got any sleep last night. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, for whom the bell appears to be tolling, has been making the rounds, as has Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, whose incredible success seems to waning ever so slightly. Tory leader David Cameron made a whistlestop, 36-hour last minute tour of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday, “to flaunt his stamina, to show voters that he is a sort of human version of New York City — the politician who never sleeps”, The Times; claimed, in a rather sniffy leading editorial urging all the candidates to get some sleep.

But how could they, with the spectre of a hung parliament, a shedload of uncertainty and an army of undecided voters looming so ominously?
Because the fact is, as The Telegraph’s Benedict Brogan pointed out today, “Yet for all their shiny assurances, none of them really knows what will happen.”

Brogan continued, “By the time things stopped for good last night, the common view of the three party headquarters was bafflement. Neither internal polls nor hunches provide them with anything approaching certainty…. Fascinating, exquisite doubt has marked this extraordinary election.”

Populus: Tories 37% Labour 28% LibDem 27%%

ComRes: Tories 37% Labour 28% Lib Dem 28%%

Opinium: Tories 35% Labour 27% Lib Dem 26%%

ICM: Tories 36% Labout 28% Lib Dem 26%%

YouGov: Tories 35% Labour 28% Lib Dem 28%%

Angus Reid: Tories 36% Labout 24% Lib Dem 29%%

Harris: Tories 35% Labour 29% Lib Dem 27%

According to the PoliticsHome.com Poll Centre, the Tories are expected to fall 19 seats shy of a majority, eclipsing Labour and the Lib Dems, but not enough to form a government. It’s a hung parliament – the very thing that The Independent seemed to be advocating in their endorsement this week. Meanwhile, The Time reported, in an exclusive today, that the Conservatives seem to be tipped to win – or rather, “David Cameron has the keys to No 10 almost within his grasp,” according to the paper’s final Populus poll. The Tories were up 9 points on Labour, at 37 percent compared to the incumbent party’s 28 percent. The Lib Dems were trailing in last, after an explosive campaign, at 27 percent.

But the differing polls – and there are many – all underscore the fact that this will be the closest vote in a generation and that no one, not even the pundits or the pollsters, have any idea what Britain’s government is going to look like after this.

Brogan ended his election day editorial on a contemplative note: “All of us, as we enter the polling station today – or even if we exercise our right to go to the pub instead – should take a moment to cherish the peculiarity of belonging to a country that nurtures a healthy disregard for its politicians, while showing every ability to assess the real qualities of those who propose to lead us. We will know soon enough what the people think. They are smarter than us, and they are always right.”

We’ll see: There are 44 million registered voters in Britain and about a quarter have already cast their votes via post. The polls opened at 0700 BST this morning; voters can cast their votes up until 2200 BST. Expect the first results to start rolling in tonight on BBC One from 2155 BST, with live coverage on the BBC’s news site.

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