Natanz nuclear facility in Iran. Photo credit: Hamed Saber

Iran today announced an agreement, negotiated by Turkey and Brazil, to ship some of its nuclear fuel to Turkey. A legitimate breakthrough with a recalcitrant nation, or a sly attempt to derail sanctions talks?

The Iranian government announced today that it has agreed to ship 1,200 kilograms of its domestic low-enriched uranium to Turkey, in exchange for 120 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent from Russian and France, which would be made available to the nation in about a year and is earmarked for medical research. The deal is largely the same as the one that Iran backed out on in October, with one major difference, The New York Times pointed out: Then, 1,200 kilograms represented a significant portion of Iran’s nuclear stockpile. But now, Iran may have a much larger stockpile, owing to its enrichment activities over the last few months, possibly little more than half. What a difference a few months makes.

Iran’s announcement comes just days after the head of UN nuclear watchdog organization, the International Atomic Energy Agency, was ready to call time on a fuel-swap deal with Iran. Last week, Director general Yukiya Amano told Bloomberg Businessweek, “I don’t see indications that Iran is going to take these steps that are required… A change of policy is needed in Iran.” Ahead of the weekend talks, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also expressed concern that Iran might turn its back on the offer, saying at a press conference in Moscow on Friday that it may have Iran’s “last chance”.

But The New York Times and many other observers pointed out that this deal might not be the capitulation the West has been looking for from the recalcitrant Islamic republic. It could in fact be one of two things: An actual breakthrough in the “on-going nuclear standoff with the West”, or an attempt to derail the talks of sanctions against Iran.

Some observers have reacted to news of the deal with skepticism: Bronwen Maddox, writing in The Times today, claimed that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to use the deal “as a way to frustrate new sanctions, and as a cover while keeping on with work which could give it nuclear weapons.” A “key warning sign”, Maddox said, is that none of the nations involved in the negotiations alerted the IAEA, which would have to oversee the transactions.

As yet, there is no reaction from Washington. Other nations, however, have been cautious in their embrace of the so-called breakthrough. According to the AFP, EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said that the deal does not address all of the concerns the international community has about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel, meanwhile, is alarmed: One senior Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to AFP, told the new agency that Turkey and Brazil was “manipulated” by Iran and there’s a definite risk the nation won’t follow through with the deal.

Others, however, have heralded the deal as a breakthrough. Stephen Kinzer, former foreign correspondent for The New York Times and The Washington Post, claimed in today’s Guardian, “The dramatic news from Tehran that a last-minute breakthrough may have been reached to avert a global crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme is a highly positive development for everybody – except those in Washington and Tel Aviv who have been looking for an excuse to isolate or attack Iran.” It also, he said, marks the emergence of a powerful new alliance among international power brokers: Turkey and Brazil.

David Gardner, blogger for The Financial Times, is cautiously optimistic: The deal “could dissolve into yet another false diplomatic dawn in the nuclear stand-off between Iran’s theocrats and the West. Yet, it might just be a triumph that prevents an armed conflict with Iran.”