Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney: On course for victory? Photo Credit: World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, http://www.flickr.com/photos/wacphiladelphia/4559102616/sizes/z/in/photostream/

The 2012 US Presidential race kicks off in earnest with the Iowa caucus on Tuesday – while not exactly a reliable indicator of the overall winner, the Iowa electoral event is seen as the official beginning of the process that will decide which Republican will face President Barack Obama. Which means, of course, that the commentariat is in overdrive.

As Republican candidates scramble for votes, political commentators are scrambling to predict the victor: The GOP nomination race has been a rollercoaster affair, with candidates surging, falling, resurging, or, in the case of one-time frontrunner Herman Cain, dropping out altogether. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is currently the favourite in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll, but late-surging Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Pennsylvania social conservative Rick Santorum are snapping at his heels. Former US Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who led the pack at one point, has experienced what The Des Moines Register described as “a screeching double-digit drop” since November 2011.

So will the Iowa caucus open the year with political fireworks or will the electoral event turn out to be a damp squib?

Why the Iowa caucus matters. “For the political media, the predictable unpredictability of Iowa is good for business,” wrote John Sununu, Republican former senator from New Hampshire, in The Boston Globe. However, Sununu argued that by focusing on this unpredictability,  the political press misses the fundamental point of the primary system: “Presidential primaries vet candidates more effectively than any other process,” he said, insisting that the process has historically strengthened candidates because it forced them to “organize, raise resources, sharpen their message, and build a broad base”. Sununu insisted that pundits’ hand-wringing over the failure of one Republican candidate to “break out” from the pack is misplaced and lazy, as it is still too early in the game for this to happen.

GOP candidates have stepped up their television ads ahead of the Iowa caucus, and Adam Sorenson at Time’s Swampland blog analysed the message behind TV spots. Sorenson suggested Rick Santorum’s ad was saying:”Virtually no one thinks Rick Santorum has the best chance to beat Obama, but we’re going to try to convince you anyway.”

Newt Gingrich: Ad upset. In light of his poll drop, Gingrich has been sending out mixed messages, saying at first that he did not expect to win in Iowa, then later suggesting he was capable of pulling off an “upset” in the state, according to The Huffington Post. Has the former House Speaker’s popularity been dented by negative campaign ads from his GOP rivals? “Anti-Gingrich ads accounted for nearly half of the ads that Iowans saw in December,” reported Gail Russell Chaddock for The Christian Science Monitor, pointing out that pro-Romney group Restore Our Future waged a $3.1 million ad campaign in Iowa at the end of 2011 that mainly targeted Gingrich. The former House Speaker criticised the negative campaigning, but according to Chaddock, there is a whiff of hypocrisy: “It’s a sharp turnaround for a lawmaker seen as spearheading a sharp spike in negative, personal attacks during this tenure in the US House.”

Mitt Romney’s campaign exudes confidence “about winning the whole shebang: Not only the Republican nomination, but ultimately, the White House”, wrote Lloyd Grove at The Daily Beast.

Ron Paul: Leaving a GOP legacy whatever the result. Romney will probably win the GOP nomination despite the Ron Paul and Rick Santorum surges, but Paul’s campaign may have long-term repercussions, argued Nicholas Lemann, dean of the Columbia University School of Journalism, in The New Yorker. According to Lemann, the key point is Paul’s insistence on shrinking government: “For the Republicans, the question is whether Paul’s enumeration of the minimal-state particulars will entrench the appeal of government-bashing or serve, instead, as a vaccine that protects the Party against taking politically disastrous stands in the future,” he wrote.

Paul for the long haul? According to BuzzFeed, Paul has the potential to become a “kingmaker” in the Republican presidential nomination: Some observers expect the Texas congressman to win a significant number of delegates in different states, which would give him a strong position at the Republican National Convention. “Paul’s position is far stronger in 2012 because the Republican Party has moved in his direction. His libertarian, anti-government purity has struck a chord, and the Tea Party brought many of his supporters and ideas into the party’s mainstream,” said BuzzFeed.

Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, both once hotly tipped but now relegated to the fringes of the GOP race, are polling at 11 percent and 7 percent respectively, according to The Des Moines Register. Gaffe-prone Perry didn’t exactly help his chances by confusing Alaska with Arizona, according to Newser.

Presidential race may be exciting but GOP candidates are not. “This big moment on history’s stage is being filled by politicians who so far have looked way too small for the occasion,” wrote John F. Harris and Alexander Burns at Politico, arguing that the fluidity of the Republican nomination race shows how deficient the candidates are. According to Harris and Burns, Republicans will end up settling for a candidate: “As Bill Clinton has noted, Republicans tend to fall in line, not fall in love.”
So you think you know Iowa? The clean version, son.

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